Latest DOM (Days on Market) Statistics

We're compiling some market data for a client.

They're house went live just a couple of weeks ago and they are thinking through some of our marketing strategies.

Part of this research includes keeping an eye on a very important variable - DOM. DOM means "Days on Market" and is a key indicator in how your area is doing.

Here are some of the averages for DOM in some key areas where we practice, for houses that are currently For Sale. When there are multiple numbers, it represents the average days on market in the different zip codes in that city (and surrounding areas):

Antelope 90
Auburn 101, 79, 144
Carmichael 83
Citrus Heights 95, 94
Colfax 103
Elk Grove 85, 90, 83, 73
Elverta 148
Fair Oaks 78, 87
Folsom 120
Foresthill 78
Freeport 89, 87
Gold River 90
Granite Bay 91
Land Park 95
Lincoln 126, 101, 95, 144, 83
Loomis 102
Mather 77
Natomas 68, 86
Newcastle 107
Orangevale 77
Penryn 110
Rocklin 89, 84, 103
Roseville 67, 70
Sacramento 76, 91, 80, 100, 84, 94, 93, 89, 141, 72, 86, 75, 99
South Land Park 71
Sun City Lincoln 104
Wilton 102

For those houses that are on the market now, the absolute average in all of Placer and Sacramento counties is 84 days.

Use this data in good health !!

Call me if you would like data on a specific zip code, neighborhood, or area. There are toooooooo many to type them all out by hand!

- Jim

"My Friend Told Me We Should....."

An important part of the home buying and selling experience is getting feedback. Validating assumptions is absolutely critical.

One thing you will find, is that everyone knows something about real estate. It's one of the joys and challenges of working in this industry. Everyone is willing to share their experiences, stories, and deep insight.

Be cautious.

Here are a few of my favorites:

* "My friend told me we should offer $xxx,xxx. He/she is an engineer and really smart".

* "My brother is in real estate in Pennsylvania. He told me we are missing the boat if we don't do X, Y, and especially Z. Please do them immediately"!

* "One of my co-workers lives in the neighborhood and tells me that prices are still doing pretty well. We should offer above list price".

* "My neighbor has a friend who's sister got a bank to drop 50% of their price on a foreclosed home, and I want the same"!


Please keep in mind that you've hired a professional in the Real Estate industry. Chances are pretty good that they know more about this business than those who aren't actually practicing in the profession.

Market drivers absolutely differ by state. What happens in Ohio has almost nothing to do with what happens in California. What happens in Southern California often has little impact to Northern California (did you know the processes for escrow are actually different within the same state?).

Differences between zip codes can be huge too - even neighborhoods across the street from each other?


Over the last couple of years, there are parts of Sacramento County that saw value decreases greater than 60%. Yet there are other locations in Sacramento County where the drop in value was less than 15%.

Placer County? An average drop of 23% last year. Yet there are places in Lincoln that dropped over 50%, while parts of Granite Bay actually appreciated!


Unless your friends, family, co-workers, etc.. are actually practicing Real Estate in your area, trust the professional that you are working with.

Chances are pretty good that that person is busy 7 days a week and works at least 12 hours a day. We have to. This market is changing so fast that daily participation is absolutely required, if we are to do the best job for our clients.

Operating models (placing offers, comp'ing for list price, etc) from just March are no longer valid! That's how quickly things are changing.

Pay attention to the professional you've hired. Listen to them. There will certainly be messages of good news and bad news. Ask questions. Dig deep. But make sure you are talking to the most knowledgeable person you can find.

Again, it is absolutely important to get feedback and to validate your assumptions. Just please do it with someone who is a professional and who is practicing on a daily basis. It will make your participation in these processes easier (and less emotional).

- Jim

Short Sales Getting Quicker

Hello Neighbors,

I think the lenders are starting to figure it out.

Last year (2007) we went for over 7 months "working" with one lender to get approval on one short sale. That lender (Wells Fargo) simply didn't have the process in place or expertise in their "asset manager" teams to handle Short Sales. When they did finally get back to us, they rejected our offer!

Put yourselves in the shoes of that Buyer. Would you have stuck around? Probably not - and neither did that Buyer.

Lenders can't do business this way. They need to figure out how to handle these "assets" (homes) quickly and efficiently.

Logically, it would seem like holding these assets is bad news for a lender or bank - and you are right! Financially, it isn't a good place to be if you are a bank. You aren't in the business of property management, and you should do everything in your power to sell these homes.

Well, logic need not apply.... in fact, forget logic completely. Lenders and banks aren't like you and me. Selling a home appears to be a 9 to 5 job for them, not an urgent situation that requires diligence and focus to get it done. Forget timelines too, as they ignore most offer contract timelines as they don't align with the paper pusher 9 to 5 timeline.

...However, that is changing. The last few short sales we offered on have had quick response times. In fact, we've had several that have been resolved within a week. That's great news. The pace of these transactions is picking up. A few of the Lender's real estate agents have even shared the lender's financial requirements (minimum net requirements) to get the houses sold. THIS IS HOW IT SHOULD BE DONE! Give us the information, give it quickly, and we will make it work. Families will get the housing they need, and Lenders will move back into the business they should be in!

Let's hope this trend continues.

Another important note: The smaller banks and Lenders (credit unions, local banks, regional banks) appear to be better at Short Sales than the big guys. Perhaps they have more to loose if they drag their feet? I'm not sure what it is, but our transactions that involve the big guys (see the Wells Fargo example above) are still going at a slower rate than the small lenders.

Watch this space for more real world updates,

- Jim

Bottoming Out - Wall Street Journal Agrees

Hello again Neighbors,

As you know, we are using this forum to bring you "real world" updates on the local housing markets. We hope you are finding it useful. We will continue to post data from our own actual transactions - so that you can make your own informed housing decisions.

...and, guess what? For a change, the media is starting to report what we've been documenting here in this blog since March... we are bottoming out!

This just in from the Wall Street Journal (thanks WSJ!):

The Housing Crisis Is Over
By CYRIL MOULLE-BERTEAUX
May 6, 2008; Page A23

The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.

How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor.

Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50% and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982.

Furthermore, residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever. So what's going to stop the housing decline? Very simply, the same thing that caused the bust: affordability.

The boom made housing unaffordable for many American families, especially first-time home buyers. During the 1990s and early 2000s, it took 19% of average monthly income to service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased. By 2005 and 2006, it was absorbing 25% of monthly income. For first time buyers, it went from 29% of income to 37%. That just proved to be too much.

Prices got so high that people who intended to actually live in the houses they purchased (as opposed to speculators) stopped buying. This caused the bubble to burst.

Since then, house prices have fallen 10%-15%, while incomes have kept growing (albeit more slowly recently) and mortgage rates have come down 70 basis points from their highs. As a result, it now takes 19% of monthly income for the average home buyer, and 31% of monthly income for the first-time home buyer, to purchase a house. In other words, homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s. Numerous households that had been priced out of the market can now afford to get in.

The next question is: Even if home sales pick up, how can home prices stop falling with so many houses vacant and unsold? The flip but true answer: because they always do.

In the past five major housing market corrections (and there were some big ones, such as in the early 1980s when home sales also fell by 50%-60% and prices fell 12%-15% in real terms), every time home sales bottomed, the pace of house-price declines halved within one or two months.

The explanation is that by the time home sales stop declining, inventories of unsold homes have usually already started falling in absolute terms and begin to peak out in "months of supply" terms. That's the case right now: New home inventories peaked at 598,000 homes in July 2006, and stand at 482,000 homes as of the end of March. This inventory is equivalent to 11 months of supply, a 25-year high – but it is similar to 1974, 1982 and 1991 levels, which saw a subsequent slowing in home-price declines within the next six months.

Inventories are declining because construction activity has been falling for such a long time that home completions are now just about undershooting new home sales. In a few months, completions of new homes for sale could be undershooting new home sales by 50,000-100,000 annually.

Inventories will drop even faster to 400,000 – or seven months of supply – by the end of 2008. This shift in inventories will have a significant impact on prices, although house prices won't stop falling entirely until inventories reach five months of supply sometime in 2009. A five-month supply has historically signaled tightness in the housing market.

Many pundits claim that house prices need to fall another 30% to bring them back in line with where they've been historically. This is usually based on an analysis of house prices adjusted for inflation: Real house prices are 30% above their 40-year, inflation-adjusted average, so they must fall 30%. This simplistic analysis is appealing on the surface, but is flawed for a variety of reasons.

Most importantly, it neglects the fact that a great majority of Americans buy their houses with mortgages. And if one buys a house with a mortgage, the most important factor in deciding what to pay for the house is how much of one's income is required to be able to make the mortgage payments on the house. Today the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 5.7%. Back in 1981, the rate hit 18.5%. Comparing today's house prices to the 1970s or 1980s, when mortgage rates were stratospheric, is misguided and misleading.

This is all good news for the broader economy. The housing bust has been subtracting a full percentage point from GDP for almost two years now, which is very large for a sector that represents less than 5% of economic activity.

When the rate of house-price declines halves, there will be a wholesale shift in markets' perceptions. All of a sudden, the expected value of the collateral (i.e. houses) for much of the lending that went on for the past decade will change. Right now, when valuing the collateral, market participants including banks are extrapolating the current pace of house price declines for another two to three years; this has a significant impact on the amount of delinquencies, foreclosures and credit losses that lenders are expected to face.

More home sales and smaller price declines means fewer homeowners will be underwater on their mortgages. They will thus have less incentive to walk away and opt for foreclosure.

A milder house-price decline scenario could lead to increases in the market value of a lot of the securitized mortgages that have been responsible for $300 billion of write-downs in the past year. Even if write-backs do not occur, stabilizing collateral values will have a huge impact on the markets' perception of risk related to housing, the financial system, and the economy.

We are of course experiencing a serious housing bust, with serious economic consequences that are still unfolding. The odds are that the reverberations will lead to subtrend growth for a couple of years. Nonetheless, housing led us into this credit crisis and this recession. It is likely to lead us out. And that process is underway, right now.

Thanks again WSJ, nice to see some in the media are getting it!

- Jim

Property Taxes Dropping!

Hello friends of Neighborly Realty,

GREAT NEWS, and finally an answer to a question many of you have asked.

Yes, property taxes are dropping. With all of the foreclosures, bank owned property sales, short sales, and general decline in the marketplace between 25% - 65%, state / county property tax assessors are adjusting property taxes to match.

This won't impact everyone though.

Here is a direct cut and paste from a letter sent by Sacramento County to some of their property holders:


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

ASSESSED VALUE DROPS ON 85,000 SACRAMENTO COUNTY RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES

Reflecting the fact that much of the residential real estate market has been in a decline since mid-2006, Sacramento County Assessor Ken Stieger announces that the Assessor’s Office has reviewed the market values of residential properties in Sacramento County and will be reducing the assessed values for over 85,000 properties on the 2008-09 property tax roll. These decreases are often referred to as Proposition 8 reductions, reflecting the 1978 ballot proposition that authorized them.

Generally speaking, properties purchased in 2004 and later are affected. Most decreases will range between 10% and 30%.

The majority of the remaining residential properties in the county, some 300,000-plus parcels, will continue to be assessed under Proposition 13 provisions and will not be receiving notices. If a property was purchased prior to 2004, it is unlikely to receive the Prop 8 decrease in assessed value.

In the next few weeks, the Assessor’s Office will send letters to the owners of these properties, notifying them that the assessed value of their property will be reduced for the 2008-09 property tax roll. The letter will advise affected owners of their new Proposition 8 assessed value and will also include their Proposition 13 factored value for comparison. The Prop 8 assessed value will be reflected on the tax bills issued in October of 2008.

Proposition 8 value reductions are temporary. Once a property receives a Prop 8 reduction, its value must be reviewed as of January 1 each year to determine whether the current fair market value remains less than its Proposition 13 base year value plus inflationary adjustments. The Prop 13 value is typically the property’s acquisition value plus inflation factors for intervening years. The lower of these two values is the value used for property tax purposes.

Since the reduced Proposition 8 value represents the property’s current Fair Market Value, it can fluctuate from year to year without limitation, to reflect changes in the real estate market. When the real estate market recovers and the market value exceeds the Proposition 13 factored base year value, the property’s Proposition 13 value will be restored.

The anticipated decrease in assessed value for the 85,000 properties should approximate $6 billion, and will result in a revenue decrease equal to 1% of that amount, or $60 million. The lower amount of property taxes in the County will impact local schools, cities, and special districts.

Assessor Stieger also wishes to alert the public that property owners may receive solicitations from private businesses and individuals offering assistance in this process for a fee. While property owners are certainly at liberty to use these private companies, they can apply for this reduction themselves at absolutely no cost simply by writing a letter or otherwise contacting the Assessor’s Office.

Taxpayers may visit the Assessor’s web site: www.assessor.saccounty.net for more information or call the Assessor’s Proposition 8 Customer Service Line at (916) 875-0455.

That's Sacramento County.

Other counties are following suit, like Placer County for example: http://www.placer.ca.gov/Departments/Assessor/Decline%20in%20Value.aspx

Need specific info on your situation? Give me a call and we can figure it out together.

Many thanks, and Happy Memorial Day,

- Jim

Onsite: Real Estate Extravaganza, Friday May 23rd

Just an FYI to those of you who might like to talk about Real Estate services in person.

Neighborly Realty will be at the Addison Avenue Federal Credit Union tomorrow, Friday May 23rd from 11:00am - 1:30pm.

Addison Avenue has asked us to participate in their "Real Estate Extravaganza" week. They would like us to sit in their branch office and talk to their members about the local real estate markets.

If any of you are in the area, please do drop by tomorrow at:

1210 Roseville Parkway,
Suite #120
Roseville, CA
95678
(in the "BJ's Brewery" complex)

Obviously, if you need questions answered about loans and/or re-financing, this is the place to ask!

...stay tuned for an announcement on Addison Avenue too, and their recently announced "Lender of the Year Award" - congratulations Addison, and rightly deserved!

- Jim

The Market is Turning

We posted a note here in March that said the market was turning. We provided actual data from our own offers / sales to support the ramp up in activity. At the time, the data was confirming that the $300,000 and under segment was booming.

Well?

Now the $400,000s are starting to see similar action.

A few days ago, we tried to submit an offer on a bank owned house listed at $419,000 in Roseville. We were too late. Within 6 days the home went from ACTIVE (for sale, no offers) to SOLD (escrow done!). Amazing. The sales price was $415,000.

No chance for a competing offer, no backup offers accepted. Done.


Today I was standing in a home in Orangevale with a client. The list price for this home is in the mid $200,000s. WHILE WE WERE THERE - 3 other Realtors came through with their clients. This was in the span of roughly 25 minutes. Middle of the work day (a Wednesday at 3:15pm).


I had another agent call me yesterday to ask advise. He isn't with Neighborly Realty, but he's a good guy so we helped him out.

He was going after a Short Sale. His Buyer was tired of waiting on Short Sales and/or missing the chance to even submit an offer. He was effectively "done" with this process and wanted to know how to act.

He submitted an offer for that client that was $15,000+ above list price. He was competing against 3 other offers.


The market is turning. Those who aren't seeing these trends and who are waiting for the "bottoming out" are going to miss this chance.

Keep watching this space. I will continue to post real-world experiences. Ignore the popular press. I will post the actual transaction data, and let you be the judge.

Many thanks,

- Jim

Upcoming California Legislation & Eminent Domain

Several of you have asked for advise on the upcoming California Propositions 98 & 99, and their impact on Eminent Domain.

First though, what is Eminent Domain?

That's when local, city, state, or federal government groups take private property from an individual (or family) for "public use". The state delegates eminent domain power to certain public and private companies (typically utilities) such that they can bring eminent domain actions to run telephone, power, water, or gas lines. In most countries, including the United States (under the Fifth Amendment to the Constitution) the owner of any appropriated land is entitled to reasonable compensation, usually defined as the fair market value of the property. Proceedings to take land under eminent domain are typically referred to as "condemnation" proceedings.

OK, so what is the fuss with Propositions 98 & 99?

We went out to the California Association of Realtors web site to get some details.

A tangent too.... Do you know who the 3 largest lobbyist groups in the United States are working for? A Real Estate Finance professor once pointed it out to me:

#1 is the NRA (National Rifle Association)
#2 is the NAR (National Association of Realtors)
#3 are the Oil Company lobbyists.

Politics aren't discussed here, but know that the group in the #2 position fights time and time again for private property rights. They also fight for more legislation to keep home ownership the best vehicle for building a family's financial future.

So? Their advise on this particular matter is probably pretty good.

Here's what they had to say:

OFFICIAL C.A.R. POSITION
Vote YES on Proposition 98 and
Vote NO on Proposition 99
on the June Ballot

Local governments are abusing eminent domain to seize homes to give to private developers. It’s a rotten deal for Home Owners. Here are some real examples of eminent domain abuse:

-In Baldwin Park, CA, the city is threatening to use eminent domain to take 400 homes and businesses so developers can build new, higher cost retail and housing.
Los Angeles Business Journal, April 7, 2008

-In Vista, CA, city officials are attempting to classify 37% of the city as “blighted,” making it easier to seize properties within that area.
San Diego Union Tribune, April 13, 2008

SOLUTION: the June Ballot
REALTORS® – Support Proposition 98 and oppose Proposition 99.

The Solution -- Proposition 98:
-Provides real protection for homeowners.
-Limits eminent domain to legitimate public use.
-Prohibits price controls on private property.

Proposition 99 is a TRICK designed to maintain the status quo. It is particularly dangerous because if both propositions pass and Proposition 99 gets more votes, it CANCELS OUT Proposition 98.

Remember, YES on 98. NO on 99.

A YES vote on both measures is a vote against Proposition 98.

Thanks to CAR for the insight,

- Jim

Be Careful Out There!

Hello Friends of Neighborly Realty,

It is with sadness that I type this update. It is also with a word of caution for our friends and clients that I type this update. Be careful who you work with in this industry.

90% of the professionals I've worked with in these transactions are just that - professionals. Diligent. Competent. Accountable. Doing the best for their clients at all times. Living up to the Code of Ethics we all subscribe too. In short, they are nearly always people I would like to do business with again.

Of course it had to happen eventually.... We've run into our first transaction with a "professional" who is anything but.

It would be illegal and unethical to manage a “black list” of agents that we wouldn’t want to do business with. Just thinking about such a thing is nearly a violation of free trade legislation!

However, I’ve run into an agent on one of our transactions who is in a bit of legal trouble himself. This person runs both a real estate brokerage and a mortgage company. This person's methods are questionable and motives unclear, with several threats of litigation towards us. I've instructed my team to pass this person along to me as the single point of contact for Neighborly Realty, if we ever get into another potential transaction.

What's really unfortunate is that this person has been in this business for DECADES.

So?

Be careful. Watch who you work with. Ask for referrals from people you know and trust. These "transactions" are anything but - they are life altering, significant, and extraordinarily important processes to a family.

To treat them as anything but... just isn't the Neighborly Way.

- Jim

Technology & Neighborly Realty

As an ex Information Technology manager with Hewlett Packard and Agilent Technologies (and some time with IBM in San Jose), use of technology to help our clients is at the top of the Neighborly Realty business plan priority list.

As such, we've linked this blog to Technorati (blog management and publication service) and will be enabling RSS capabilities shortly.

Stay tuned.

The goal? Not to be sexy and wasteful with this technical stuff.... but use technology where it fits to better communicate with our clients, and to provide a level of service that outshines our peers.

- Jim

Technorati Profile

Another FED Rate Cut

Wow. The discounting continues.

This just posted to the financial wires a few minutes ago:

Federal Reserve cuts key interest rate by quarter-point
Wednesday April 30, 2:20 pm ET

Fed cuts key rate by quarter-point and says economic activity remains weak

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate by a quarter-point, a smaller move than the aggressive easing it undertook earlier this year.

The Fed action, announced Wednesday after a two-day regular meeting, pushed the federal funds rate down to 2 percent, its lowest level since late 2004. It marked the seventh consecutive rate cut by the central bank since it began easing credit conditions last September to combat the growing threat of a recession brought on by a deep housing slump and credit crisis.

The rate cut will mean lower borrowing costs throughout the economy as banks reduce their prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of consumer and business loans.

The Fed move was in line with expectations. Wall Street believes this could well wrap up the Fed's rate cuts unless the economy threatens to fall into a worse slump than expected.


Interesting. I also read that Bank of America is dropping the Countrywide name by mid-Summer 2008. I guess the Countrywide name has a bit of a stigma to some folks....

- Jim

Is a Lease-Option a Good Idea?

I’ve had a few clients recently ask me about lease options and whether or not they are a good idea.

First of all, they are a bit misunderstood. It is not a risk-less way to get into a piece of property that you simply can’t afford now. Nor is it an absolute guarantee that entering into this arrangement will “land” you the property within a year or two.

You will find that many investor out there are willing to “buy the house for you and lease it back” while you save away enough for the down payment (when the purchase option is exercised). As an investor myself, I think this is wonderful. Someone pays the mortgage from me, I potentially benefit from appreciation, or at least I can theoretically use this arrangement to hedge against devaluation. Nice.

Is it the right thing for the Buyer? As a step of last resort, perhaps it is necessary. But if you can’t qualify for a standard loan in today’s market where rates are at a nearly all time low and FHA has jumped in to help, does that then say something about your financials to begin with? Are you ready for such a commitment?

Obviously it’s a case by case analysis and decision I would not make for a client family of mine. They would have to weigh the pros and cons (articulated with my help) for moving forward and make their own decision.

Here’s an article from the California Association of Realtors on Lease Options. One thing for sure… investigate wisely, as if you were going to be purchasing the home now.

Lease-Options are Back

A lease-option is utilized when a potential buyer wants to lease or rent the property with an option to buy it at a later date. The potential buyer pays separate consideration for the option to purchase at a later date to remain open for a specified period of time. If the potential buyers does not exercise the option, or does not purchase the property within the option time period, then the potential seller keeps the option consideration and retains the property.

Generally, lease-options are done in a slower real estate market when the reseller simply cannot sell the property outright. In this situation, a buyer, who may not have enough money for a down payment, can lease the property while they accumulate the money for a down payment. Often, a portion of the monthly payment by the potential buyer will go toward the down payment.

The option agreement must designate a price or state the price that will be determined by some objective standard when the option is exercised. Because the parties have entered into a binding agreement, the potential buyer may sue for specific performance on the option, requiring the potential seller to sell the property to the potential buyer under the terms of the agreement. The agreement must, therefore, contain all “material” terms for a purchase and sale to proceed.

Before proceeding with the lease-option, the potential buyer should consider:

a) Documenting the need for repairs with a property inspector

b) Checking for liens recorded against the property

c) Ensuring payment of the mortgage and taxed during the lease. Also, negotiating payment of insurance on the property

d) Ensuring that potential buyer will have the funds to make the down payment and qualify for any loan needed at the time of exercise of the option

e) Negotiating what will happen if the option period ends and potential buyer has not exercised the option.

f) Speaking with an attorney regarding removal of contingencies, disclosures, property inspections, etc.

After the lease-option is agreed upon, the option should be recorded to retain the potential buyer’s rights to the option.

Many thanks to CAR and Nicole Briggs for this article.

- Jim

Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs)

If you have a home equity line of credit, you may have had a recent "discovery". A letter in the mail from your lender, indicating your credit limit has been reduced. This has happened to several of our clients and friends - and now our own family too.

WAMU (Washington Mutual) sent us a letter saying that our credit limit is now roughly 28% of what it was initially - WOW! That's a pretty significant change. We have no balance on the account either, not a dollar in outgoing loans. Our use for this account was our own real estate investing. Many of our clients have been using it for the same - and some to live on as their own financial situations are getting back on track.

Here's an article from Money Magazine on the situation, and what a borrow can (potentially) do to keep their HELOCs alive.

Thanks Money Magazine for the article,

- Jim

When a HELOC freezes over
What to do if the bank tries to put your credit line on ice.

(Money Magazine) -- When Diane Carr, 55, received word in February that her home-equity line of credit would be canceled, she was dumbfounded. The HELOC had been open since 2003, when she bought her Woodside, Calif. home. And Carr had never even tapped it.

"It was just a security thing," she says. No matter. In recent months, tens of thousands of homeowners like Carr have been shut off from their equity as lenders try to stem losses from subprime mortgages and other high-risk loans.

As of September, delinquencies on HELOCs were up 47% year over year, according to Economy.com; the numbers are expected to be worse in 2008. In response, Countrywide has already suspended an estimated 122,000 lines, many in high-foreclosure-rate states, and USAA has frozen or reduced some 15,000 accounts. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Citibank (C, Fortune 500), among others, are following suit.

Not all HELOCs will be frozen or downgraded, but you can be sure lenders will scrutinize every account - including yours.

If your HELOC hasn't been frozen (yet)

Know your risk. Areas where housing prices have fallen by 10% or more are prime targets for freezes, says Susan McHan, president of Opes Advisors, a mortgage banking firm in Palo Alto, Calif. Because of new lending standards, your HELOC could also be in danger if you bought your home in the past few years with little money down.

Last year consumers could easily borrow up to 100% of a home's value through a combination of a HELOC and a first mortgage. Today you'd be lucky to get up to 90%; 60% is the max in areas hit hardest by home-price declines.

Lenders are beginning to apply the same standards to existing HELOC customers. Call your bank and ask what the loan-to-value cap is on new HELOCs. If your house debt is above that, your line could be at risk. A change in credit score or a missed payment could also flag your account. Reread your contract to see if such factors allow the lender to cut you off.

Access cash now. If your line is in jeopardy and you need the HELOC to finish a renovation, you could draw a lump sum. On the downside, you'll cut your equity; you'll owe interest now; and if prices keep falling, your loan values could top your home's value. So borrow only as much as you need and put the cash in a high-yielding savings account or CD until the bills in question come due.
If your HELOC is on ice

Fight for a defrost.

The letter from your lender should explain why the line was suspended and how to appeal. Some banks use automated processes to identify troubled markets.
To prove that your house hasn't been affected, ask a realtor to pull prices for houses sold within three miles in the past six months, ask your mortgage originator to intervene, or have your house reappraised. The latter can run $400, but if you were counting on the line, it may be worth it.
If a change in your risk profile is the cause, check your credit reports. Carr was told that her HELOC had been canceled because of a drop in her FICO score. But when she checked, it was above 800, so the lender reinstated her line.

Compromise.

If your efforts fail, ask for a lower credit line instead of a total freeze. The bank may be more amenable if you hold your primary mortgage there, as that's an insurance policy of sorts.
Shop around. Not all banks have the same standards. If you have at least 10% equity, you may qualify with another lender. Search at bankrate.com, or click on the link above and to the right.

Thanks Money Magazine for the article,

- Jim

The Sac Bee - Optimism?

Not likely, as they wouldn't go quite that far!

I was in a builder's office until nearly 10:00pm last night, helping a couple of families buy their first homes. Great fun.

The builder's sales lady said she remembered well "one bad day in October" when the Sac Bee just about killed their business. She said that visits to the sales office went from a constant stream to almost nothing - overnight.

The Sac Bee isn't our friend. They have been terribly unkind to the Real Estate business. Some of it warranted, but much of their negative energy misplaced.

So imagine the surprise... when the Sac Bee actually posted a few upbeat notes about our real estate market !! Here are a few direct quotes:

"There may actually be a bottom out there."

"But amid the dreary statistics there appears to be the suggestion of a market in the beginning stages of stabilizing."

"Bank-owned homes have come to account for about half of the sales in the region, a factor that has scrambled standard market indicators."

"Real estate ....of Sacramento see a sign that things are looking brighter in bidding wars occurring on bank-owned listings in the suburbs. He suggests the market already is "bouncing off the bottom."

"...bank-owned homes in Elk Grove that once sold for $120 a square foot have risen to $135 per square foot and are going higher."

"We've seen prices stabilize and even go up in some of our communities," he said. Centex, the region's leading builder this year, has started saying no to buyers who ask for concessions that might have been routinely granted earlier.

"There are just a heck of a lot of foreclosures to burn off before the market can kick into gear in any big way,"

The whole article:

http://www.sacbee.com/142/story/854196.html

Wow. If the Sac Bee is noting a change, then it must be real.........

- Jim

Foreclosures Still on the Rise

The market continues to be on fire! Offers are coming in by the truckloads on bank owned and short sale property. The last two weeks of March and the first week of April have seen a dramatic swing in how those properties are being marketed and put into escrow – Offers now must be at list price or above to compete! Nothing I’ve submitted for a client has “stuck” if it has been below list price. Amazing.

Yet even as we are clearing out some of this bank owned “inventory”, new homes in this class are still coming to market. Here’s an update on that rate of new “inventory”. Many thanks to Yahoo Finance for this update on Foreclosure rates.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Home foreclosure filings surged 57 percent in the 12 month-period ended in March and bank repossessions soared 129 percent from a year ago, as homeowners struggled to make mortgage payments, real estate data firm RealtyTrac said on Tuesday.

For the month of March, foreclosure filings, default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions rose 5 percent, led by Nevada, California and Florida, RealtyTrac said.
The rise in March to filings on a total of 234,685 properties followed a 4 percent decline in February, RealtyTrac reported.

RealtyTrac said the peak has yet to be reached. "What we're really looking at is ongoing fallout from people overextending themselves to buy homes they couldn't afford and using highly toxic loan products to get into the houses in the first place," Rick Sharga, vice president of marketing at RealtyTrac, based in Irvine, California, said in an interview.

"We're going to see quite possibly a record amount of foreclosure activity in the third or fourth quarter," reflecting sharp payment increases on adjustable-rate subprime mortgages in May and June, Sharga said.

One in every 538 U.S. households living in single-family dwellings received a foreclosure filing in March. The single-family dwellings can include condominiums.

There are three phases of the foreclosure process in most states -- an initial default notice, notice of a scheduled auction, and an "REO" filing if the property is not sold at auction but instead repossessed by the bank, Sharga said. REO refers to real estate-owned property. All of the households in the report received at least one of these filings last month.

AUCTION NOTICES UP 32 PERCENT

While default notices and repossessions soared in March, auction notices rose a relatively small 32 percent, James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, said in a statement.
That suggests "more defaulting homeowners are simply walking away and deeding their properties back to the foreclosing lender," he said. "This deed-in-lieu-of-foreclosure process allows the lender to take possession of a property without putting it up for public foreclosure auction."

The states with the highest foreclosure filing rates -- Nevada, California and Florida -- also are among those that had the biggest price appreciation in the five-year boom before the housing meltdown that began in 2006.

These states tend to also be plagued by defaults on unoccupied homes bought by speculative investors. In many cases, home prices have now fallen below the size of the mortgages and some owners are walking away.

In Nevada, one in every 139 households received a foreclosure filing in March, keeping the state at the top of the ranks for the 15th straight month.

The 7,659 Nevada properties receiving foreclosure filings last month represented a 24 percent jump from February and a nearly 62 percent spike from March 2007.

California had the second highest rate of foreclosure filings, one for every 204 households, followed by Florida with one of every 282 households.

Arizona's filings fell about 5 percent, but it retained its standing as with the fourth highest pace of foreclosure activity for the third month straight.

Foreclosure activity in Colorado dropped 8 percent in March from February and 1 percent from a year ago, but it ranked No. 5, with one filing for each 339 households.

Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, Massachusetts and Maryland were the other states with the highest foreclosure rates in March.

The states with highest total number of foreclosure filings were California, Florida and Ohio.
Foreclosure filings were reported on 64,711 California properties in March, the most of any state for the 15th consecutive month, up nearly 21 percent from February and up almost 106 percent from March 2007.

Florida posted the second highest total, with foreclosure filings reported on 30,254 properties in March. While down about 7 percent from February, filings were about 112 percent higher than last March.

Georgia, Texas, Michigan, Arizona, Illinois, Nevada and Colorado were the other states with the highest foreclosure totals in March.

PLEASE LISTEN - The Market is Changing

Hello Neighborly Realty friends and clients,

Every offer we've made in the last few weeks on Short Sale property or bank owned (REO) property has been rejected.

I have 9 active families right now trying to buy homes. Everything we've offered on has been rejected - in some cases, even when the offers are all cash !!

Why?

Short Sale properties and REOs - that are in decent condition - are getting offers above or at list price. Our offers are being beaten by higher priced offers.

Now, if a client wants something that is in poor condition, there is still inventory to go after. But for the most part the good homes are going into escrow. Even the poor condition homes are getting offers quickly. We offered on one home in Roseville that was truly trashed, yet it's $215,000 list price pulled in offers in the $280,000 mark! The home is worth roughly $310,000 - $320,000 in nice condition.

Another example in Roseville: A beautiful bank owned 2400+ square foot home listed at $379,000. We offered on it within just a few days of it going live in MLS. We lost on that one too. The home had several offers above list price, from buyers not even in the area (these buyers were on the East Coast).


What about "standard" transactions (family to family sales, not REOs or Short Sales)?

My own listing in Rocklin SOLD IN 13 DAYS !!

My clients and I were stunned ! (happily)

Legally I can't disclose the price we've agreed too... but it is VERY close to asking price.


New Construction?

We've had a few builders in Roseville actually raise prices! ...and when I've walked in to try and get a deal for a client, they've basically sent me away empty handed.


What does this mean?

At the micro-economic level, this market is changing. It's changing fast. Pent up demand is starting to jump. Inventory levels will be dropping. It matters not what the local news is saying... actual data from my own listings, my own offers, my own clients, and my own phone calls to my fellow Realtors shows that this market is changing.

I genuinely believe we have bottomed out - or are about to.

- Jim

Juli Marty & Neighborly Realty

She's fully on board!

Our newest Broker Associate. Very exciting indeed.

Take a look at Juli's web site and send her a note: http://www.JuliMarty.com/

We expect big things from Juli!

- Jim

Short Sales and REOs: Interpreting List Price in MLS

I have seen a strategy change in the last few months that Buyers need to understand.

Agents who are listing Short Sale properties and REOs (bank owned, foreclosed upon properties) are listing the sale prices for their homes BELOW fair market value.

How does it work?

A practical example:

A home in Roseville is listed in our local MLS at $425,000. The listing agent immediately gets 10 offers on the home. He / she collects the offers and submits them to the bank who has title on the home. The bank counters everyone's offers and says "come back to us with your highest and best price".

By the time it is all said and done, this house had 3 offers between $450,000 - $465,000, and the final closing price really has nothing to do with the initial list price.

Yesterday.... another example in Folsom:

A newer house was listed at $330,000. I had a Buyer who wanted to make an offer, so I called the listing agent. She was following the same strategy. She already had several offers in front of the bank - all higher than list price - as a result of the "list low, counter offer everyone" practice.

As a result, this house will probably close between $345,000 - $360,000.

What does this mean?

BE CAREFUL when searching the MLS details for "bargains". Do not get your hopes up and emotions involved. Those homes that are in Short Sale status or REO are likely being listed at lower prices than the actual transaction will close.

I am keeping a short list of agents who are using this strategy, and advising my Buyer clients when I see this happening.

Remember - agents who list REO (bank owned) property get measured on how quickly the "move" a home. So? They do what they think is necessary to attract a zillion offers immediately.

- Jim

Existing Home Sales are Up!

Not a surprise really... at the very micro level, we are seeing a significant amount of Buyers jump back in to this market.

I signed 7 new Buyer clients / families during a 5 day period last week. AMAZING. But this is to be expected, isn't it? With home prices in our area 25% - 60% below 2005 prices, and with interest rates at nearly all time lows - Buyers should be acting.

Here's an article from Yahoo Finance, which cites National Association of Realtor data points:

For the first time in seven months, existing home sales increased, says the National Association of Realtors. February sales rose nearly three percent over January. For the first time in seven months, existing home sales increased, says the National Association of Realtors. February sales rose nearly three percent over January. That's encouraging says the NAR, but is it enough to spur buyers?

For one thing, the sales pace, even improved, is still nearly 24 percent lower than a year ago, and year-over-year home prices are down over 8 percent.

But that's exactly why home sales are improving. Home sellers have dropped prices enough to be attractive, and coupled with below six percent interest rates, February was a good time for buyers to lock a rate and put a contract on a home.

Consider that home prices in February 2007 were $213,500 and interest rates for the month averaged nearly 6.5 percent. In 2008, prices sere $195,000 and interest rates averaged 5.9 percent.

So it shouldn't be surprising that housing inventories have dieted down to a 9.6-month supply from over 10-months on hand in January.

Metropolitan areas are showing the most growth in housing sales with roughly half the major markets showing mild increases. For those communities with the density to support multi-family homes like condominiums and coops (up 3.7 percent), the improvement in sales was even greater than single-family (up 2.8 percent.) by 30 percent. Condos and coops also held their prices a little better than single-family homes at $211,700 or five percent below February 2007. That's despite a 13-month supply on hand.

Market gains were highest in those areas in communities that are helping themselves -- like Oklahoma City -- which has put millions into the revitalization of its downtown and has plans to extend its scenic historic district water feature, the Bricktown Canal, through the warehouse district around the city.

They're also improving in areas that were depressed because of over speculation such as the Western segment dominated by California, Nevada and Arizona. Existing-home sales in the West are down 13.4 percent from a year ago, and the median price is down the most of any region at 29.2 percent. But the good news is that sales slipped only one percent in February, which suggests that the slide could be coming to an end.

One month doesn't make a spring, but things could be improving but only if more homes aren't dumped on the market, interest rates hold in a reasonable range, and the credit crisis improves. One ways to see if there's a positive trend is to watch for the new home sales report from the Commerce Department, due Wednesday.

- Thank you Yahoo Finance for providing this article, Jim

Neighborly Realty Grows!

Welcome Juli Marty!

For all of the right reasons, Neighborly Realty is growing. ...and this is a big step! Juli comes to us as a licensed broker. She has years of management experience with a few big names (like Hewlett Packard). She has impeccable formal education credentials too - an MBA from UC Davis!

Welcome to the team Juli!

Juli's business philosophy is a perfect match for Neighborly Realty - service before salesmanship. Let's do the right thing for our clients, and the business will naturally grow.

Juli can be reached at her new Neighborly Realty email address of: Juli@NeighborlyRealty.com

These certainly are exciting times.

- Jim

Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF)

Here's the best update I've seen about the TSLF. Many thanks to Kristie at Masters Team Mortgage for creating such an easy to read summary (and for a bit of humor):

"JUST WHEN I THOUGHT I WAS OUT...THEY PULL ME BACK IN." Al Pacino in the 1990 film, The Godfather III And if Bonds and home loan rates thought they were out of the days of volatility...they got pulled right back in, as last week brought daily price swings of almost historic proportions. For the week overall, fixed home loan rates improved by about .25%.

What led to the dramatic action this week? The bipolar emotional state of the markets began deeply depressed on Monday, but then were filled with joy Tuesday, when the Fed made an interesting move by announcing the creation of the new Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF). The TSLF will provide borrowing banks with $200 Billion to draw on to help inject liquidity into the credit markets, and further, will accept some mortgage-backed securities as collateral, which effectively may help to "upgrade" the value and perception of battered Mortgage Bonds.

But in the meantime...struggles are still being played out related to the downgrade and losses experienced by companies holding massive amounts of mortgage-backed securities. Headlines hit on Thursday about The Carlyle Group, which manages a portfolio of mortgage-backed securities, not being able to meet a margin call and being forced to sell off large amounts of mortgage paper into the markets at great financial losses. Then on Friday, the news broke that financial brokerage and investment banking giant, Bear Stearns had suffered enormous losses, and their lack of liquidity endangered them from going out of business...or "sleeping with the fishes". The new aforementioned TSLF is designed to help this type of liquidity problem, but it will not go into effect for a few weeks, and Bear Stearns would not last that long. Coming to the rescue with loans were both the NY Fed and JP Morgan Chase. These sure are exciting times.

One bright spot for the financial markets was a low consumer inflation reading. The Overall and Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures were reported unchanged, far cooler than the expected increases of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. These tame inflation numbers give the Fed a green light to cut the Fed Funds Rate by another .75% at Tuesday's meeting...but read on to understand exactly how this cut may impact YOU.

Is California Real Estate Recovering?

Wow, is that a loaded question!

Yet I get it every day.

At the very micro-economic level, it seems to be so. Or at least stabilizing - enough that Buyer's are moving off the fence and into the purchase process.

I had 6 families (six!) "sign up" over the last week to go house hunting. An amazing number, and the greatest influx I've had in a single week long period.

Now, is this a sign that the finance and real estate worlds are turning to the positive? Probably not. Is it an indicator that this is a great (and appropriate) time to buy? Absolutely.

When I'm looking for market trends and analysis, I keep my eye on the NAR (National Association of Realtors) website. Their link is posted to the right of this article. They spend a great deal of time and energy watching our economic cycles, and just got recognized for that hard work (from the NAR website today, thanks NAR). I will post more analysis from Lawrence in the coming weeks:

NAR Chief Economist Named Among Top Forecasters for Accuracy

WASHINGTON, March 17, 2008 -

The National Association of Realtors® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has been named among the top 10 economic forecasters by USA Today. Yun is ranked fifth on the list and is responsible for NAR’s real estate statistics and economic forecasting. The annual list recognizes accuracy in forecasting.

“NAR is proud of USA Today’s recognition of Lawrence Yun and his economic forecast accuracy. He is a highly regarded economist, and the housing and real estate industry have come to rely heavily on his economic analyses,” said Dale Stinton, NAR executive vice president and chief executive officer. “This acknowledgement contributes greatly to NAR’s reputation as the leading innovator in housing-related research.”

Yun was named NAR’s chief economist and senior vice president of research in November 2007. He has been with the association since 2000, previously serving as vice president and senior economist. He pioneered the development of the Commercial Leading Index after helping develop the residential Pending Home Sales Index.

“I’m honored to be recognized among some of the best economists in the country,” said Yun. “The economy and housing industry are facing many challenging issues at this time, which makes this an interesting and stimulating position.”

USA Today enlisted the help of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to determine the most accurate forecasters among the economists surveyed in the newspaper’s quarterly survey on the U.S. economy.

The economists, whose identities were unknown to those gathering the data, received four scores – one for each quarterly survey – and were ranked on the average of those four scores. FRBA used statistical methods to assess the joint accuracy of the predictions rather than assessing the accuracy of each forecast variable separately, as is commonly done.

Before joining NAR, Yun worked as an economic consultant to the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and the U.S. Department of Education. As a research associate at the University of Maryland, Yun developed the graduate economics curriculum for and taught free-market economics in the former Soviet Union as that country transitioned from communism to a free-market system.

Yun received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Maryland in 1995. He received a B.S. degree in mechanical engineering from Purdue University in 1987.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

New California Loan Limits !!

Outstanding!

The new jumbo loan limits are out.

Many thanks to the fine ladies at Masters Team Mortgage for getting this data out immediately. Here are the details behind this change - and remember, these changes are only good until the end of the calendar year (mandated in the Bush stimulus package). We'll see what happens in 2009, but if you can take advantage of these changes now, please do so!

From Masters Team Mortgage, thanks again ladies,
- Jim

The government has raised the limits on mortgages that can be purchased by the Federal Housing Administration this year. New limits are 125 percent of an area's median home price (minimum of $271,050, maximum of $729,750). Here are figures for California counties. (Limits for Bay Area counties not at maximum in parentheses.)

$729,750: Alameda, Contra Costa, Los Angeles, Marin, Monterey, Napa, Orange, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Ventura

$600,000-$729,749: San Diego, San Luis Obispo, Sonoma ($662,500)

$500,000-$599,999: Alpine, El Dorado, Mendocino, Nevada, Placer, Riverside, Sacramento, San Bernardino, Solano ($557,500), Yolo

$400,000-$499,999: Amador, Butte, Calaveras, Inyo, Lake, Madera, Mariposa, Merced, Mono, Plumas, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tuolumne, Yuba

$271,051-$399,999: Colusa, Del Norte, Fresno, Glenn, Humboldt, Imperial, Kern, Kings, Sierra, Siskiyou, Tehama, Tulare

$271,050: Modoc, Lassen, Trinity

Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

Specific to our surrounding counties:

Placer & Sacramento: $580,000!!
El Dorado & Yolo: $580,000
Merced: $472,500
San Joaquin: $488,750
Solano $557,500

*These loan limits are currently guaranteed until 12/31/08

How Are Rental Markets Doing?

Many of our clients have asked about rental markets, and how this downturn has impacted that business.

Here's an article from the National Association of Realtors that partially answers that question. It's addressing the macro level question. If you want data at the micro level in our areas, give me a call.

Note my extreme happiness with the Austin numbers!

Many thanks to NAR for this article,

- Jim


Rental Squeeze Play By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

Home sales activity has fallen to levels similar to those before the housing boom years. Many regions are experiencing the lowest sales activity in nearly 10 years — looking all the way back to 1998, the year when no one would say homeownership and housing was in a boom. The flip side of lower levels of ownership, which has fallen to 67.8 percent at the end of 2007 from as high as 69.2 percent in 2004, is that there are more people renting.

Just in the past year, the number of rental households grew by 1.5 million while homeowner households fell by roughly 600,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. With the U.S. population growing at 3 million per year, there is a natural increase in demand for housing. People need to live somewhere. ut more renters have pushed up apartment rents strongly — particularly in localities where home sales took a notable dive yet job gains continue at a solid pace. Here are some samples of rent rises in markets with strong jobs yet experiencing recent significant declines in home sales (partly due to lower housing affordability from a strong run-up in home values of the past 3 years):

Austin — rents are up 5.6% over the past year
Honolulu — up 5.9%
Portland, Ore. — up 7.0%
San Francisco — up 8.8%
Salt Lake City — up 8.9%
Seattle — up 9.6%
San Jose — up 10.3%

The rent data is from Torto-Wheaton Research. One REALTOR® in Salt Lake City told me that he has never experienced a better market condition because he is covered on both sides. With many properties, a strong rise in home values have resulted in substantial capital gains while his monthly income flows are rising better than 10 percent for his properties — something he never experienced in the past.

Of course, not all markets are equal. Rents are falling in regions where jobs are being lost like in Detroit and sluggish in areas where there is a high inventory of vacant homes such as in Orlando. Nationally, according the Bureau of Labor Statistics data on consumer inflation on rents showed a rise of 4 percent.

In 2008, I suspect that markets with continuing strong jobs as in Oklahoma City, Washington D.C. and New York could get a jolt in rising rents.

America is fortunate to have dynamism in population growth. More people mean more demand for housing — either rental or for ownership. In eastern Germany, many people migrated to the western side after the fall of the Berlin Wall thereby leaving behind hordes of vacant housing units. Both apartment rents and home values fell as a result. Similar trends are observed in current rural Japan where overall country population has stalled yet people are moving in to the metro areas of Osaka and Tokyo.

Within five years, I suspect Florida markets, along with Arizona and Las Vegas, to be the hotbed of the housing market in terms of both home price and high apartment rents, because demographics of baby boomer retirement nearly assures very high demand for warm climate regions.

Again, America is fortunate to have a solid 3 million population addition per year. That normally would translate into about 1.5 million household formations. In 2007, it was much lower than that as people found additional roommates or moved back in with their parents. That naturally also means that recent slowdown in household formation and the accompanying lower than normal demand for housing units just cannot be sustained when the country is continuing to add 3 million new people. With homebuilders having cut back production to 1 million units per year, any return to normalcy in household formation could result in either an accelerating rents, rising home sales, or both.

This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®.

Investment Property Account Review

Hello Investor Friends of Neighborly Realty,

We've booked our next "account review" for the apartment complexes in Texas. We will be out there March 10th and 11th.

If any of you would like to join, just let me know!

- Jim

Existing Sales for January 2008

The numbers are in.....

How did our areas do?

Placer County
2007 January Median Price: $424,000
2008 January Median Price: $360,000
Year to Year Adjustment: - 15.09%

Sacramento County
2007 January Median Price: $348,750
2008 January Median Price: $250,000
Year to Year Adjustment: - 28.32%

El Dorado County
2007 January Median Price: $450,000
2008 January Median Price: $396,000
Year to Year Adjustment: - 12.00%

....I'm still digging for Yolo County, stay tuned.

Selling? Ouch.

WHAT AN AMAZING TIME TO BUY REAL ESTATE !!!!!

- Jim

Fed Drops Rates Again Today

Hello Neighborly Realty Friends,

Yep - Mr. B is at it again today. I've pasted in the whole article from Yahoo Finance (many thanks to those folks) below my name.

REMEMBER though - the rate that the Fed plays with doesn't directly impact your mortgage rate. There may be some impact, but there isn't a 1:1 correlation. Why? That answer will come later when I post some educational material to our website on this topic. Stay tuned!
Here are a few definitions:

Federal Funds Rate = What banks charge each other for overnight use of their own funds that are stored at the Federal Reserve (set by the Fed at the FOMC meetings).

(Federal) Discount Rate = What the Fed charges for loans to (member) commercial banks, credit unions, and large lenders. - It largest recent drop was .50% on August 17th.

Prime Rate = What banks charge their best customers (ie., "A+ Paper").

Do you know which rate the Fed played with today? Call me with the correct answer and I will buy you a cup of coffee!

- Jim

Here's the article from Yahoo Finance:

Fed Ready to Cut Interest Rates Again
Wednesday February 27, 3:28 pm ET By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

Bernanke Says Fed's Priority Is Shoring Up the Economy, Pledges to Cut Interest Rates
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve is ready to lower interest rates again to brace the wobbly economy even as zooming oil prices spread inflation, Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled to Congress on Wednesday.

He is fighting to keep the economy afloat after mighty blows from the housing and credit crises, while trying to contain inflation.

For now, the priority is shoring up the economy, Bernanke suggested in an appearance before the House Financial Services Committee. He pledged anew to slice a key interest rate and help the economy, which many fear is on the verge of a recession, if not already in one.
"The economic situation has become distinctly less favorable" since the summer, the Fed chief told lawmakers.

Since that time, the housing slump has worsened, credit problems have intensified and the job market has deteriorated. Bernanke said that combination of bad news has made people and businesses more cautious about spending and investing -- further weakening the economy.
The country should prepare for "sluggish economic activity in the near term," Bernanke said. Concern is growing about the possible return of stagflation, when stagnant growth is combined with rising inflation, for the first time since the 1970s.

Were energy prices to continue to rise at a sharp clip -- something the Fed does not anticipate -- it would "create a very difficult problem" for the economy, Bernanke said. Inflation would spread and growth would be further restrained, he said. If that happened, it would be a "very tough situation," he added.

The Fed is prepared to lower rates again to bolster economic growth, Bernanke said. The Fed "will act in a timely manner as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks," he said, sticking closely to assurances he offered earlier this month.
The central bank started lowering a key interest rate in September. Over just eight days in January, the Fed shaved 1.25 percentage points, the biggest one-month reduction in a quarter-century. Economists and Wall Street investors predict the Fed will cut rates again at its next meeting, March 18. Some analysts believe rates will drop again in April.

Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight, said Bernanke's remarks "keeps the door wide open for further rate cuts."

Bernanke said at some point this year, the Fed will need to "assess whether the stance of monetary policy is properly calibrated" to foster the Fed's objectives of price stability "in an environment of downside risks to growth."

He was hopeful that previous rate reductions and the $168 billion economic aid plan of tax rebates for people and tax breaks for business would energize the economy in the second half of 2008.

As the Fed chief began his first day of back-to-back appearances on Capitol Hill to discuss the economy, there was more bad news on the housing and manufacturing fronts. Sales of new homes fell in January for a third straight month. Orders to factories for big-ticket manufactured goods dropped in January by the largest amount in five months.

Bernanke has come under some criticism for not acting sooner in cutting rates. But Alabama Rep. Spencer Bachus, the committee's top Republican, expressed sympathy. "There is perhaps no other public figure in American who has been subjected to as much Monday morning quarterbacking as you have over the past six months," Bachus said.

The committee chairman, Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., suggested the economy is not suffering through a garden-variety slowdown.

"I don't want to appeal to you to use the word recession because I'm not going to be responsible for the nervous people at the stock market who overreact when you twitch your nose," Frank told Bernanke. "But the problems we now have are different."

Many of those woes are linked to the housing meltdown. Bernake was asked when he thought the housing market might stabilize. It possible, he said, that by "later this year it will stop being such a big drag directly" on the economy. But home prices probably will decline into next year, he added.

"It is very difficult to know, and we've been wrong before," Bernanke said.
Even as the Fed tries to shore up the economy, it must remain mindful of inflationary pressures, Bernanke said.

Oil prices, which have set records, briefly shot past $102 a barrel on Wednesday; prices eased, but still remain above $100 a barrel.

"Should high rates of overall inflation persist," Bernanke said, "the possibility also exists that inflation expectations could become less well-anchored." If people think inflation is escalating, they will act in ways that could make things even worse, a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy. Bernanke said that could complicate the Fed's job of trying to nurture growth while also keeping inflation under control.

If oil prices continue to skyrocket this year, it would be "hard to maintain low inflation," Bernanke acknowledged.

Loan Limits for California

Hello Friends of Neighborly Realty,

Still no update on the new Jumbo loan limits for the rest of 2008 (remember, these loan limit adjustments are only good until the end of 2008 - so jump on them once they are announced).

We discussed this timeline today at the Placer County Association of Realtors weekly Marketing Meeting.

The different lenders are all hearing different numbers. Most are hearing that these limits will be county dependent, and anywhere from the high $500,000s to the full $729,000 upper limit.

Consensus seems to be that we won't have a final answer from FNMA (Fannie Mae) and / or FMAC (Freddie Mac) for another month - mid March.

So stay tuned, email me if you have questions, and watch this space for updates as soon as we hear more.

- Jim

Jumbo Loan Limits - Still Waiting

Thanks for checking in folks. Stay tuned on the loan limit increases for Jumbos in our area. Although the HR 5140 bill was signed into law, we still don't have the final word on the increase in Jumbo Loan limits for our part of California. I will post that information as soon as I hear.

BACKGROUND

HR 5140 President Bush signed into law last week a $152 billion economic stimulus bill that will temporarily allow Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration to guarantee mortgages as large as $729,750 in some high-cost markets.

HR 5140, the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, raises the conforming loan limit for mortgages eligible for purchase or guarantee by Fannie and Freddie to 125 percent of the median home price in high-cost areas, not to exceed $729,750. In areas not designated as high-cost markets, the conforming loan limit will remain $417,000.

The stimulus bill also increases the upper limit for FHA loan guarantee programs in high-cost markets -- currently $372,790 -- to 125 percent of the median home price, with an upper limit of $729,750. The upper limit for FHA-backed mortgages in "normal" housing markets will be increased from $200,160 to $271,050.

Federal regulators have said it will take longer for Fannie and Freddie to draft new credit guidelines and update their systems to evaluate what are now considered "jumbo" loans. The task is complicated by the fact that the new loan limits for high-cost areas will vary according to the median home price in a given county or metropolitan statistical area (MSA).

While HR 5140 is an effort to help the struggling housing market, there is no guarantee investors will accept the jumbo loans backed by Fannie and Freddie. If investors don't purchase the larger loans after they are securitized, that would limit the benefits to the secondary mortgage market and do less to ease the credit crunch than backers of the move have hoped. Mortgage interest rates remain volatile amid all the uncertainty. A cautious approach to float lock decisions may be wise.

Call me if you need help finding someone to talk to about re-financing, or purchase financing.

- Thanks to Ed Fontes for keeping us in the loop on this legislation, Jim

Sunday's Sacramento Foreclosed Home Auction

Interesting. A wild and exciting process, that's for sure.

This event took place at Cal Expo on both Saturday and Sunday. I joined for the Sunday session, and tracked the prices for the first 50 or so homes. I will do detailed comps on these 50 in the next couple of days, but we know these markets well enough to form a few initial thoughts:

End result? Be careful....

There is a 5% "Buyer's Premium" added to all winning bids. That means if you win the auction with a purchase price of $200,000 - you're really walking away with a $210,000 purchase price.

Once that number is added in, I don't think the prices were amazing deals. There were a few good deals, many homes that traded at fair market value, and a few that were actually over paid.

I watched homes go across the block in Auburn, Rocklin, Roseville, Elk Grove, North Highlands, Rio Linda, Sheridan, Orangevale, Lincoln, and Fair Oaks. I don't have enough data to do a true statistical analysis for each area, but at the higher level 50 homes is sufficient.

Key Lessons:

a) Some houses are noted as "Cash Only". As you would expect, the bidding on those homes was much slower than the rest.

b) If you are an all cash buyer, then there are good pricing opportunities for you. You may find that amazing deal. HOWEVER, those properties that are noted as "Special Financing, Cash Only" are likely noted this because there are problems with the property. Remember - a lender won't lend against a house that requires too much repair work. ...and if they have a really bad pest report on file, then you are in a tighter position. So? A cash purchase means a fixer-upper.

c) You must perform all of your own inspections BEFORE the auction. The auction organizer opens up the homes on specific days to inspect. Hustle. You are going to want to inspect a good 20 or 30 homes and be prepared to act on any of them during the auction process. You can't inspect the home after you've bid and then decide if you want to move forward. Be careful.

d) Homes will go "back across the block" (re-auction) during the day if the winning bidder can't put the financing deal together. 2 homes came across in the early morning hours, before we had even made it through 30 homes. Why? We don't know. The reason for the re-auctioning isn't mentioned. Rumor has it... that a bank/lender (whoever has title) can actually look at the winning bid and accept or reject the price! Again, I didn't speak to anyone who had actual knowledge of this, I only heard the buzz in the room.

e) The auction was attended by hundreds of people, I'm sure we had well over 1,000. Fees to get in and spectate? Nothing. Just the usual parking fee of $8.00 for Cal Expo.

f) I can represent Buyers. This is good news. It's actually encouraged by the auction company. This is probably a very smart idea too, as the documentation involved in this process is quite lengthy - and not the standard contractual documents we use.

g) Deals? Not quite. Yes if you have lots of cash and are willing to take on repair work. Other than that, there may be some "pocket" deals (property in North Highlands for example was going below market value), but once you add that 5% it is questionable.

If you want to go to this auction next time, give me a call. I do plan on going again and collecting more data for my clients.

Thanks, and good luck bidding!

- Jim

Existing-Home Sales to Hold in Narrow Range, then Begin Upward Trend

Sorry folks.... a few days there of nothing new. I had food poisoning from the buffet at a wedding, that then turned into the flu.... Anyway, let's get back to it. Here's an update from the NAR (National Association of Realtors) economists, with an opinion on the jumbo loan limit increases and the impact to our general marketplace. Enjoy.

A continuation of soft market conditions is forecast for existing-home sales in the months ahead, with improvement expected by the second half of this year if loan limits are increased, according to the latest forecast by NAR, the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales activity is expected to remain soft through the first half of the year despite a generational low in mortgage interest rates. “Household formation was only half of what it should have been last year given the demographics of a growing population and sustained job growth, so there clearly is a pent-up demand from buyers who are on the sidelines,” he said.

“Existing-home sales have moved narrowly since last September, but when the full impact of higher loan limits for conventional mortgages begins to impact the market there is likely to be a notable rise in home sales and prices. If higher limits are enacted very quickly, we’ll see a faster and more meaningful recovery by expanding safe, affordable financing in high-cost areas – that, in turn, would help to stimulate overall economic activity.”

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in December, slipped 1.5 percent to a reading of 85.9 from a downwardly revised index of 87.2 in November, and was 24.2 percent below the December 2006 level of 113.3. “We’re seeing a pattern that is consistent with skimming along the bottom of the cycle, and sales could ease modestly,” Yun said.

The PHSI in the Midwest rose 3.4 percent in December to 84.9 but is 17.3 percent below a year ago. In the Northeast, the index slipped 1.7 percent to 68.9 and is 26.0 percent lower than December 2006. The index in the South fell 3.0 percent in December to 96.4 and is 27.0 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index declined 3.1 percent in December to 83.9 and is 24.1 percent below December 2006.

Existing-home sales are projected at an annual pace of around 4.9 million in the first half of this year, rising notably to 5.8 million in the second half, and totaling 5.60 million for all of 2009. The aggregate existing-home price should decline 1.2 percent in 2008 to a median of $216,300, and then rise 3.2 percent to $223,200 in 2009.

“Areas with a high prevalence of subprime lending will continue to feel downward price pressure. Where builders have cut construction sharply, and in most areas with improving affordability conditions, we’ll generally see moderately higher home prices,” Yun said.
Current housing conditions vary widely. Preliminary data shows rising home prices in areas such as Rochester, N.Y.; Charleston, W.V.; Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Iowa; and Albuquerque, N.M. Fourth quarter metro area median existing-home prices, showing changes in approximately 150 markets, will be released February 14.

New-home sales are likely to decline 17.7 percent to 637,000 in 2008 before rising 7.6 percent to 685,000 in 2009. “Builders will further lower new home construction throughout this year and into 2009 to bring inventory under control,” Yun said. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are estimated to fall 20.1 percent to 1.08 million this year, and decline another 1.3 percent to 1.07 million in 2009. The median new-home price is expected to fall 4.3 percent to $236,300 in 2008, and then increase 5.0 percent in 2009.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is forecast to rise slowly to the 5.9 percent range in the fourth quarter, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. “Affordability conditions are anticipated to rise 14.2 percent this year, permitting more people to become homeowners, but buyers should avoid aggressive lenders and not over-stretch to enter the market,” Yun said. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise from 113.0 in 2007 to 129.0 in 2008.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is projected at 2.2 percent in 2008 and 2.7 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate should rise to 5.4 percent in the second half of 2008 before averaging 5.2 percent in 2009.

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 2.7 percent this year and 1.4 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is likely to grow 1.7 percent in 2008 and 3.5 percent next year.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.Existing-home sales for January will be released February 25; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released March 6. Fourth quarter metropolitan area median existing-home prices will be released February 14.

- Thank you NAR, Jim

"Short Sale" Help for Sellers

I'm getting more and more questions about the changes in tax legislation that will help Sellers in a Short Sale position. Hopefully this article from the White House's information page will help. Excuse any political spin, as this time I did a direct "copy and paste" from the government web site.

REMEMBER: Talk to your CPA about your own personal situation. This law has important clauses on "cash out" refinancing that may exclude certain borrowers from this relief.

On December 20th, President Bush signed the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007, which will help Americans avoid foreclosure by protecting families from higher taxes when they refinance their home mortgages. This Act will create a three-year window for homeowners to refinance their mortgage and pay no taxes on any debt forgiveness that they receive. Under current law, if the value of your house declines, and your bank or lender forgives a portion of your mortgage, the tax code treats the amount forgiven as income that can be taxed.

This Act will increase the incentive for borrowers and lenders to work together to refinance loans and allow American families to secure lower mortgage payments without facing higher taxes.
This Act Is A Good Step To Address The Housing Market, But Congress Has More Work To Do.

Congress needs to complete work on responsible legislation modernizing the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). This bill will give FHA the necessary flexibility to help hundreds of thousands of additional families qualify for prime-rate financing.

Congress needs to pass legislation permitting State and local governments to help troubled borrowers by issuing tax-exempt bonds for refinancing existing home loans. Under current law, cities and States can issue tax-exempt bonds to finance new mortgages for first-time homebuyers.
Congress needs to pass legislation to reform Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. GSEs provide liquidity to the mortgage market that benefits millions of homeowners, and it is vital that they operate safely and soundly. The President has called on Congress to pass legislation that strengthens independent regulation of the GSEs and ensures they focus on their important housing mission.

The Administration Has Moved Forward On Targeted Actions To Assist Homeowners That The President Announced In August

The President and his Administration have launched a new initiative at the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) called FHASecure. FHASecure expands the FHA's ability to offer refinancing by giving it the flexibility to work with homeowners who have good credit histories but cannot afford their current payments. By the end of 2008, the FHA expects this program to help more than 300,000 families refinance their homes.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson have assembled the private-sector HOPE NOW alliance. HOPE NOW recently mailed hundreds of thousands of letters to borrowers falling behind on their payments and is supporting a toll-free mortgage counseling hotline, 1-888-995-HOPE.

HOPE NOW has developed a plan under which up to 1.2 million homeowners could be eligible for assistance. The HOPE NOW plan will help subprime borrowers who can afford the current, starter rate on a subprime loan, but would not be able to make the higher payments once the interest rate goes up.

- Jim

Jumbo Loan? Cross Your Fingers!

Living in a "high-cost" housing area?

If you are in California, the answer is likely YES.

As you may know, "jumbo" loan limits are currently set at $417,000. That means if you need to borrow more than $417,000, you pay a premium - a higher percentage rate for your mortgage.

Well, that could end.

Last week, the US House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed HR 5140 – an economic stimulus package that includes a temporary increase in the conforming loan limit and the upper threshold for FHA loan programs to as much as $729,750 in high-cost areas.

The temporary increase would last only until the end of 2008. The bill would also restrict Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration from guaranteeing or purchasing loans above 125 percent of the median home price for a given area. That means that the existing $417,000 conforming loan limit for mortgages eligible for purchase by Fannie and Freddie would not increase in areas where the median home price is $333,600 or less.

In order to make higher limits a reality, the next step is for the Senate to pass the bill and for the President to sign it into law. The target date for final passage set by the White House and Congressional leaders is February 15. Check back here after the 15th.

Cross your fingers that this moves ahead. If it does, all of you with Jumbo loans will have an additional reason to re-finance, and save your family some money.

- Jim

Foreclosure Rates Up 75% in 2007

Reprinted from CNN/Money:

The number of foreclosures soared in 2007, with 405,000 households losing their home, according to a report released Tuesday. That's up 51 percent from the 268,532 homes that were repossessed in 2006.

Total foreclosure filings soared 97% in December alone compared with December of 2006, according to RealtyTrac, an online seller of foreclosure properties. For the year, total filings - which include default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions - grew 75%.
More than 1 percent of all U.S. households were in some stage of foreclosure during 2007, up from 0.58 percent the year before.

"There are parts of the country where we're seeing many more bank repossessions," said Rick Sharga, a spokesman for RealtyTrac. "People are flat out losing their homes."

In California alone, nearly 66,000 people lost their homes last year. In Michigan, 47,000 families went through foreclosure. Also hard hit was Nevada, where 10,0000 people had their homes repossessed, a per-capita rate more than twice as high as California.

California had a total of 250,000 foreclosure filings, the highest number of of any state. Florida was second with more than 165,000 total filings.

Other hard-hit states include Michigan, which has been battered by job losses in the auto industry and had over 87,000 filings, Ohio, with more than 89,000 filings, and Colorado, with 39,000.

Nevada had 3.376 filings for every 100 households - a foreclosure rate of more than three times the national average, and the highest of any state.

According to Gail Burks, the CEO of the Nevada Fair Housing Center, a community advocacy group that aids home owners facing foreclosure, some communities in Las Vegas, Nevada's biggest city, have as many as 40 percent of homes in foreclosure.

"It's having a huge impact," she said. "Some zip codes here are recording 22 foreclosures a month."

The rise nationally has confounded some community advocates. "Last December, we thought the national numbers were bad, and now they're up almost 100 percent," said John Taylor, CEO of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition. "It just shows we need a comprehensive approach to solve the problem."

Some states have avoided problems. Maine had just 286 properties with foreclosure filings on their records, Vermont had 29 and South Dakota just 24.

- Thank you CNN / Money, Jim

2008 Newsletters are On Their Way!

The Neighborly Realty 2008 (First Quarter) newsletter is ready and on it's way!

PDF copies of the six page update are being emailed as I type this.

Hardcopy mailings won't go out as quickly though, as we are looking for a new printer to help with the process. Any suggestions, email me!

Highlights include:

• Who Neighborly Realty served in 2007
• Update on the Mortgage Industry
• REOs and Short Sales - Defined and Discussed
• Should I Sell?
• Should I Buy?
• Our Network of Professionals in Complementary Businesses
• Round Three of Apartment Investments
• About Neighborly Realty

Would you like a copy of this update in either .pdf form or hardcopy (via US Mail)? If so, just send me a quick email: Jim@NeighborlyRealty.com Highlights will be included in this blog.

Thanks, and Happy 2008!

- Jim

Thank You for a Wonderful 2007!

Neighborly Realty would like to say THANK YOU to all of our clients and business partners for a wonderful 2007!

We had the privledge of helping many new clients - including first time Buyers, first time investors, seasoned investors, and Sellers from all over the spectrum. What a true joy.

We helped folks from Colfax to Fairfield, from Lincoln to Folsom, from Sacramento to Wilton, and everywhere in between! My Toyota Prius was a very smart purchase indeed !

Although we did business in 4 California counties (Placer, Sacramento, El Dorado, and Yolo), the majority of you were in Rocklin, Roseville, Lincoln, Auburn, and Rancho Cordova. Several of you “Sun City’ers” even let us help you – what great fun!

The average household in the US receives 49 pieces of mail from Realtors and lenders a month! That’s not us. If we send you something, post data to our blog, or email you with an update, it’s useful data. You won’t get cookie recipes from us, football calendars, or frisbees with our pictures on them.

As many of you know, we run a slightly different business model. We are here to serve – to be your lifetime Real Estate Services Provider – not just to sell, sell, sell.

If we can help you again – please call. We won’t be filling your voice mail or email with extra fluff. We will be here to help you when you need outstanding professional service and represesntation.

If you have a friend or relative who may need real estate assistance, call us and pass along their contact information. We will treat them like we’ve treated you. REMEMBER – You can use us to negotiate on new construction too! It's actually quite fun.

Thank you again for a wonderful 2007.

We wish you all a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2008!
- Jim